Event Trading
Every day, our AI independently estimates the probability of real-world events on Kalshi — elections, economics, technology, sports, and more — then compares its estimate against the live market price to flag where it thinks the market may be mispriced.
Open markets
Las Vegas
Las Vegas is a strong candidate for an NBA expansion franchise because of its market size, arena infrastructure, and the league’s history of using the city for marquee events. However, NBA expansion is still uncertain and typically depends on broader labor, ownership, and strategic considerations, and the league has not committed to a timeline. With the deadline at the end of 2026, there is a meaningful but still fairly limited chance of an official award announcement by then.
Mike Norvell - Florida St.
Mike Norvell has been a successful enough coach that an imminent departure is not the most likely outcome, and college football coaching changes usually require either poor performance, a major program move, or a mutual parting. The market only needs an announcement of leaving, which raises the chance somewhat versus an actual departure, but the date window is still fairly short. Overall, I’d put this in the high-teens rather than near 50%.
Greg Schiano - Rutgers
Greg Schiano has been a relatively durable, established coach at Rutgers, and the market only resolves Yes if he leaves or announces he will leave before Dec. 1, 2026. That said, college football coaching turnover is common, and Rutgers could part ways if results disappoint or Schiano chooses to retire or move on. Overall, the chance looks meaningfully below 50% but not low enough to be a longshot.
Dabo Swinney - Clemson
Dabo Swinney has been Clemson’s long-tenured, highly successful coach, and there is no strong public indication that he is imminently leaving. The market only needs an announcement or departure before Dec. 1, 2026, but coaches of his stature often stay unless performance, health, or a major opportunity changes the picture. A low-teens probability reflects some nontrivial chance of retirement or a surprise move over the next year-plus, but not a likely one.
Before the 2026-27 season
Kawhi Leonard is still an active NBA player, but his long injury history and age-related decline make retirement before the 2026-27 season plausible. Still, players of his stature often continue as long as they can contribute, and there is no strong public indication that retirement is imminent. The window is fairly short, so I’d put this well below even odds but not negligible.
Before the 2026-27 season
Draymond Green is already in the later stage of his career, so retirement before the 2026-27 season is plausible. However, he has remained an active high-level player and there is no strong reason to expect an announcement that soon, especially with the market only requiring an announcement rather than an actual retirement. The most likely outcome is that he continues playing through at least the start of that season.
Before the 2026-27 season
Stephen Curry is still an elite player and, by the 2026-27 season, would likely still be only in his late 30s, which is not an age where retirement announcements are common for top performers. He has also shown no clear public indication of imminent retirement, and players of his stature often give substantial advance notice only when they are truly near the end. The main risk is injury or a sudden decline, but that seems more likely to affect playing time than trigger a retirement announcement before then.
Before Dec 2026
Cabinet turnover is common in U.S. administrations, and this market only requires any one member to leave or announce departure before December 2026. Given the length of the window and the political volatility that often accompanies a second Trump administration, there are many plausible reasons for at least one resignation, firing, or planned exit. The threshold is broad, so the chance of a Yes resolution is high even if most cabinet members remain in place.
Before Feb 2028
This looks like a relatively low-probability event because it requires Heidi Overton to be nominated and then confirmed as FDA Commissioner within a specific timeframe. FDA commissioner confirmations can be delayed by political, vetting, and Senate scheduling factors, and the wording suggests this is not a routine or already-advanced nomination. Unless she is already the clear nominee with strong bipartisan support, the odds of confirmation before Dec. 1, 2026 seem modest.
Bill Belichick - North Carolina
This is a fairly specific coaching-tenure bet, and Belichick’s age and the volatility of college football make an early exit plausible. However, the market only resolves YES if he leaves or announces he will leave before Dec. 1, 2026, and a coach of his stature would likely have strong incentives to stay at least through that point unless results or off-field issues deteriorate quickly. I’d price it below one-third but well above a longshot because both retirement risk and potential program turbulence are meaningful.
Resolved markets
Zyhir Hope
A player-specific MLB debut market for a named prospect is usually driven by whether he is on a credible path to the majors within the next season-plus. Since the deadline is Nov. 1, 2026, there is enough time for a call-up if he develops normally, but many prospects still never reach MLB by then due to performance, injuries, or roster constraints. I’d price this as better than even, but not near certain, because making a major-league appearance is still a meaningful hurdle.
Before Nov 1, 2026
Jesús Made is a highly regarded prospect, and the window extends through the 2026 season, giving him ample time to reach the majors if development goes reasonably well. The main risk is that prospects can stall, get injured, or simply not be called up by that date, but for a top young player the path to at least a brief MLB appearance is fairly plausible. Because the market only requires one regular-season or playoff game, the bar is relatively low once he is on the 40-man/major-league radar.
Las Vegas
The NBA has long been linked to expansion, and Las Vegas is one of the strongest candidate cities because of its market size, arena infrastructure, and growing sports presence. However, an official expansion award by Nov. 1, 2026 requires the league to not only decide on expansion but also formally announce Las Vegas specifically, which is a fairly tight timeline. Given the NBA’s cautious pace on expansion and the possibility that any decision slips beyond this date, I’d price this as a minority but meaningful chance.
Sebastian Walcott
Sebastian Walcott is a highly regarded young prospect, and the window extends through the 2026 season, giving him multiple chances to reach the majors. The main uncertainty is that prospects can stall, get injured, or simply not be promoted quickly enough, but for a top talent the odds of at least one MLB appearance by then are fairly strong. I’d price this as better than even, though not close to certain because debut timing is still volatile.
Before Nov 2026
Cabinet turnover is common in any administration, and the resolution rule is broad: it counts both an actual departure and an announcement of intent to leave before Nov. 1, 2026. Given the long time horizon and the political volatility around a Trump administration, it is more likely than not that at least one cabinet member will exit or announce an exit by then. The main reason not to go even higher is that the exact composition and durability of the cabinet can vary, and some administrations do keep a relatively stable team.
Friedrich Merz
Friedrich Merz would need to leave office before Nov. 1, 2026, which is a relatively short horizon but still requires a significant political event. German chancellors usually remain in office unless there is a coalition collapse, resignation, scandal, or major health issue, and none of those are implied by the prompt. Because the resolution also counts an announced intention to leave, the probability is somewhat higher than a pure actual-departure bet, but still clearly below 50%.
Franklin Arias
This is a prospect/debut-style market with a fairly long runway, and players who are notable enough to have a named debut market often have a meaningful chance to reach MLB within the next couple of seasons. The main uncertainty is whether Franklin Arias develops quickly enough and stays healthy, since many prospects never make a major-league appearance by a given date. Still, the multi-year window and the fact that any regular-season or playoff appearance counts make Yes more likely than not.
Roch Cholowsky
Roch Cholowsky would need to reach the majors and appear in a regular season or playoff MLB game by the cutoff, which is a fairly demanding timeline for most players. Without strong evidence that he is already near MLB readiness or on an accelerated path, the base rate for a player to debut within this window is modest. The chance is not tiny because prospects can move quickly, but it remains well below even odds.